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The cause of the loan-growth rut

2017 is the worst year for business-loan growth since 2010, according to "Loan Growth is in a Rut” (WSJ, 11/27/17).  2017 also happens to be when the Fed rate hikes started taking hold.  Why would Fed rate hikes reduce loan issuance? 

The Crux of the Worriers' Fallacy

It is no coincidence that the dire warning signs of professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) have been a false alarm for the past five years and counting, as you point out in “Worriers (Usually) Get Market Wrong.” (WSJ, Nov 20, 2017)  As its name implies, cyclically adjusted PE is useful for analyzing valuations of cyclical companies.  The a

Why US growth is lackluster

FRED Long term overlaid.png

What is Driving the Trump rally? 

The stock market has stormed ahead under the administration of Donald Trump.  After a big run-up from November 8, 2016 to year-end last year, the S&P has risen another 8% this year while the Nasdaq composite is up another 15%.

Contemplating a limited military response to North Korea’s provocations

Ever since US nuclear technology was stolen by the post-war Soviet Union, the United States has avoided direct confrontation with nuclear-armed states out of fear of escalation into unthinkable nuclear warfare.

In a year, it may be time to short oil again

Second chances in life are a rarity.  But if you missed the opportunity to short oil in 2014, you may have another later next year.  The underlying dynamic that caused the 2014 oil price collapse—fracking--is still in full swing.  But OPEC and Russia, pinned in, are defying gravity for now.  They will not be able to do so forever.  Supply and demand eventually dic

Trump Tax Plan Offers the Biggest Bang for the Buck

Mr. Laurence Kotlikoff might want to reconsider his conclusion that "On Tax Reform, Ryan Knows Better" (May 12, 2017 WSJ).  The House tax bill lowers the corporate income tax rate to 25% (and the top personal income tax rate to 33%).

Letter to the editor April 3, 2017 US WSJ edition

Regarding your caption "Yield Curve Shows Growth is Still Worry (April 3, 2017)," the question is whether the yield curve shows anything at all any more.  

The Decline of Working Capital and Interest Rates

Your article "Zeal for 'Natural Rate' Draws Skeptics" (Wall Street Journal 12/12/16) questions why the natural rate of interest has fallen to zero.  

Larry Kudlow doesn't need a doctorate in Economics

Regarding the media's complaint that Larry Kudlow lacks a doctorate in economics (The Wall Street Journal - The Keynesians vs. Kudlow, Dec 22, 2016), the real question is why don't we value a degree in finance and accounting for our government economists?

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