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Macro Economics

Arresting growth in the money supply is sufficient to halt inflation   

After two years of 40% expansion under Quantitative Easing, money supply started to decline in March when the Fed halted QE and implemented the first of a series of hikes in the overnight rate.

Stop the rate increases

In this op-ed submission, I argue that a cessation of growth in the broad money supply, achieved by a reduction in QE combined with a reduction in deficit spending, is adequate in and of itself to bring in

Beware QT

Investors groping for a bottom to the current bear market in stocks are searching in all the wrong places.  Some are obsessing over the Federal Reserve's overnight rate policy.  Some are perusing company results.  Some are worrying over a potential recession.  Still others are watching technical indicators to signal a washout bottom.  But these are not the best tree

Letter to the Editor: The Chip Shortage - An Existential Risk to America

In "The Semiconductor Shortage (WSJ 3/13/21)," your editorial staff understates the problem of the American semiconductor supply chain.  Aside from the Intel microprocessor, which has fallen a generation or more behind Taiwan-sourced AMD, not a single logic chip is made in America any more.  They are designed here but manufactured at TSMC in Taiwan.  This is an exi

Time for the Fed to Pause

There are more reasons for the Fed to abide by Neel Kashkari’s advice than he articulates in “Pause Interest-Rate Hikes to Help the Labor Force Grow (October 26, 2018).”  

Returning to the "Old Normal" 

In "Can America Grow Again?" (WSJ May 30, 2018), the four contributors to the debate missed perhaps the most important contributor to the decline in US GDP growth after the Great Recession:  The risk-free interest rate dropped to zero and stayed there for nine years.  Because M3 is $20 trillion, risk-free interest rates of 5% on deposits, checking accounts, and money-market

The cause of the loan-growth rut

2017 is the worst year for business-loan growth since 2010, according to "Loan Growth is in a Rut” (WSJ, 11/27/17).  2017 also happens to be when the Fed rate hikes started taking hold.  Why would Fed rate hikes reduce loan issuance? 

Why US growth is lackluster

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